SPORT NEWS: 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68.giang

With one month (and one incredible Feast Week) of the 2024-25 men’s college basketball season done, the NCAA tournament picture is slowly but surely taking shape.

NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) data was released for the first time Monday morning, resulting in the annual tradition of both eyebrow-raising and perception-affirming takeaways.

NET data means we also now have official Quadrant-based records and can start leaning more heavily on actual, in-season numbers instead of simply the “Quality Metrics” (KenPom, BPI and Torvik) that still have a ton of preseason projections baked into them.

Those metrics remain the crux of our bracket projection, though, as the “Resume Metrics” (KPI, SOR and WAB) are pretty wonky at this point in the season.

However, by mid-January, those resume-metrics rankings will become the more important ones when projecting the field. They just need a little more time to cook, as they currently suggest Duke is barely top-50, Houston is barely top-100 and Connecticut isn’t even top-150.

The projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences will eventually be based entirely on conference record. There haven’t been any conference games yet, though, so we’re simply rolling with the highest-rated team on KenPom as each league’s projected champ.

With that out of the way, let’s start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

EAST REGION (Newark)

Lexington, KY
1. Tennessee vs. 16. Norfolk State
8. Michigan vs. 9. Connecticut

Providence, RI
4. Cincinnati vs. 13. Furman
5. North Carolina vs. 12. Liberty

Wichita, KS
3. Illinois vs. 14. Kent State
6. BYU vs. 11. Ole Miss

Raleigh, NC
2. Duke vs. 15. Charleston
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. Dayton

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)

Wichita, KS
1. Kansas vs. 16. Little Rock
8. Michigan State vs. 9. Clemson

Seattle, WA
4. Texas Tech vs. 13. High Point
5. Oregon vs. 12. San Diego State / Louisville

Milwaukee, WI
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Arkansas State
6. Pittsburgh vs. 11. Georgia

Cleveland, OH
2. Kentucky vs. 15. UMass Lowell
7. St. John’s vs. 10. Arizona State

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)

Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. Lafayette / Central Connecticut
8. Saint Mary’s vs. 9. Xavier

Denver, CO
4. Houston vs. 13. McNeese
5. Memphis vs. 12. UC Irvine

Providence, RI
3. Florida vs. 14. South Dakota State
6. Baylor vs. 11. Oklahoma / Penn State

Cleveland, OH
2. Marquette vs. 15. Fort Wayne
7. Texas A&M vs. 10. Nebraska

WEST REGION (San Francisco)

Seattle, WA
1. Gonzaga vs. 16. Saint Peter’s / Grambling State
8. Maryland vs. 9. Utah State

Denver, CO
4. Purdue vs. 13. Yale
5. Texas vs. 12. Grand Canyon

Raleigh, NC
3. Alabama vs. 14. Lipscomb
6. UCLA vs. 11. West Virginia

Milwaukee, WI
2. Iowa State vs. 15. Northern Colorado
7. Ohio State vs. 10. Drake

Disclaimer: Though I do make sure to construct a legal bracket as far as regional balance of the top four seed lines and potential same-conference matchups are concerned, I won’t start worrying about avoiding nonconference rematches in the first round until the first projection of January. Please excuse any of those that you may find.

1. Auburn Tigers

2. Kansas Jayhawks

3. Tennessee Volunteers

4. Gonzaga Bulldogs

5. Kentucky Wildcats

6. Marquette Golden Eagles

Auburn and Kansas were already somewhat comfortably Nos. 1 and 2 overall one week ago, and that gap has only widened.

Not only did the Tigers defeat both North Carolina and Memphis by double digits to win the Maui Invitational while Kansas scored a quality neutral win over Duke before a 35-point blowout of previously undefeated Furman, but the team that was No. 3 overall (Gonzaga) lost some ground with an immediate loss to West Virginia in the Battle 4 Atlantis.

The Zags did rally from that overtime misstep to pummel both Indiana and Davidson in the latter stages of that MTE. They have four wins (two away from home) against the KenPom top 60 and get to narrowly hang on to the fourth No. 1 seed for the time being.

There’s quite the head-to-head showdown on the horizon, though, with Kentucky facing Gonzaga in Seattle this coming Saturday. If the Wildcats win at Clemson on Tuesday and win what is effectively a road game against Gonzaga a few days later, they’ll surely move into the top four a week from now.

Same goes for Marquette, which has a road game against Iowa State on Wednesday and a home game against Wisconsin on Saturday. If the Golden Eagles improve to 10-0, they’ll leapfrog both the Gonzaga-Kentucky loser and Tennessee for a projected No. 1 seed.

That isn’t to say Tennessee is undeserving of its present spot at No. 3 overall, having won every game this season by at least 15 points, including neutrals against Baylor and Virginia and a road game against Louisville that already looks much more valuable than it did at the time. The Vols simply wouldn’t have a top-four overall resume if Auburn, Kansas, Kentucky and Marquette all make it through the next seven days unscathed.

Fifth-to-Last In: Georgia Bulldogs—Slide into the field after a 46-point pummeling of Jacksonville.

Fourth-to-Last In: Oklahoma Sooners—Surprisingly won Battle 4 Atlantis, albeit by cumulative 12-point margin.

Third-to-Last In: Penn State Nittany Lions—Wilted late in loss to Clemson, but big week ahead.

Second-to-Last In: San Diego State Aztecs—Overtime victory over Houston was a gigantic, borderline must-have result.

Last Team In: Louisville Cardinals—Throttled Indiana, clipped West Virginia for second place in Atlantis.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Arkansas Razorbacks—Never led in either of losses to Baylor and Illinois.

Second Team Out: Nevada Wolf Pack—Couldn’t buy a bucket in getting drilled by Washington State.

Third Team Out: Arizona Wildcats—Predictive metrics still believe, but this resume is extremely problematic.

Fourth Team Out: Creighton Bluejays—Bounced after almost going winless in the Players Era Festival.

Fifth Team Out: New Mexico Lobos—Hard-fought loss to Arizona State bumped Lobos from the field.

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 7. Duke; 20. North Carolina; 22. Pittsburgh; 35. Clemson; 47. Louisville

Also Considered: Florida State, SMU

Biggest Change: UNC down, but nowhere near out

North Carolina is probably the toughest team to seed at the moment—not just in the ACC, but in the entire country.

The Tar Heels are 4-3 with a neutral win over Dayton, a road win over Hawaii and home wins over Elon and American. Coming back to beat the Flyers was impressive, but it took a near miracle to get that lone quality win.

But they almost won at Kansas, they lost in OT to Michigan State and there’s certainly no shame in a neutral loss to what might be the best team in the nation in Auburn—particularly in what was UNC’s second consecutive night playing in a game that tipped off just before midnight back on the East Coast.

Their Jekyll and Hyde nature doesn’t help the quest to properly seed the Heels.

They were down 20 at Kansas before battling all the way back to take a late four-point lead. They also trailed Dayton by 21, didn’t look right against Hawaii until after halftime and had to erase an early 14-point deficit to force that overtime against the Spartans.

Basically, first-half UNC is a trainwreck, while second-half UNC is a runaway freight train. Between those four games, they were outscored by 35 prior to halftime, but went plus-49 after the intermission, winning both the third and fourth “quarter” of each game.

Buckle up for Wednesday’s game against Alabama, which has plenty of spurtability in its own right, as well as a similar M.O. of trying to score as quickly as possible when it has the ball.

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Kansas; 8. Iowa State; 13. Cincinnati; 14. Houston; 16. Texas Tech; 21. Baylor; 24. BYU; 37. Arizona State; 42. West Virginia

Also Considered: Arizona, Utah

Biggest Change: An Arizona Shuffle

As of Sunday morning, KenPom, BPI and Torvik all would’ve had you believe that Arizona was way more deserving of a spot in the field than Arizona State. The Wildcats’ average ranking was 23.3, while the Sun Devils were all the way down at 61.7, not particularly close to top 50 in any of those metrics.

By golly, though, the NET ended up being the rational voice in the room for a change, debuting 7-1 Arizona State at No. 33 and 3-4 Arizona at No. 65.

In defense of Arizona even getting considered for a bid at this point, at least all four losses were Quad 1 results, and the neutral losses to Oklahoma and West Virginia in the Battle 4 Atlantis were both close games. Moreover, when the Wildcats do win, they destroy their “competition,” presently boasting a plus-11.3 average scoring margin in spite of their sub-.500 record.

As mentioned previously in this Big 12 summary, though, their nonconference resume after not winning the Battle 4 Atlantis is kind of atrocious. They must beat former Pac-12 rival UCLA on Dec. 14 in order to avoid entering Big 12 play with an 0-5 record in the games that mattered. If they do lose that one, it’s probably going to take at least a 12-8 record in Big 12 play to salvage a bid.

Elsewhere in the desert, ASU had a much better showing in its MTE, beating both New Mexico and Saint Mary’s in winning the Acrisure Classic. That’s a Q1 and a Q2 win for a team that already had solid victories over Grand Canyon and Santa Clara on neutral courts, with merely a road loss to projected No. 1 seed Gonzaga on its list of losses. (And they were tied with the Zags in the final five minutes of that eight-point loss, making that result infinitely more acceptable than Baylor’s complete no show in Spokane to start the season.)

We’re still tempering expectations for the Sun Devils a bit in putting them in the field as a No. 10 seed. They did, after all, barely win their home games against Idaho State and Cal Poly and were nowhere near the projected field a month ago.

Given what we’ve seen thus far, though, Arizona State in and Arizona out is the only logical conclusion.

4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Marquette; 28. St. John’s. 33. Connecticut; 34. Xavier

Also Considered: Creighton, Butler

Biggest Change: A Maui Owwie for UConn

For most of November, Connecticut’s schedule was a joke. Five of the 2023 and 2024 champs’ eight games were at home against teams that do not rank top-300 on KenPom. The Huskies won each of those “contests” by at least a 35-point margin, racking up an easy 5-0 record in Quad 4 games.

They also played in the Maui Invitational, which truly could not have been more of a disaster.

Connecticut lost in overtime to Memphis with help from a controversial over-the-back call against Liam McNeeley—but mostly because of the subsequent technical foul against Dan Hurley, who finally got reprimanded for his over-the-top antics.

In the next game against Colorado, the Huskies lost by one, in no small part because of a controversial non-call of what was at the very least more of an over-the-back violation than the one that was called against them the previous day.

After those back-to-back early games, the downtrodden Huskies had to wait until after midnight ET to play their final game against Dayton, and just completely ran out of gas in the second half of that 18-point loss.

Worse yet, veteran leader Alex Karaban took a hit to the head late in the final game, had to go to the hospital and missed UConn’s next game (three days later) while in concussion protocol.

It could have been a wildly different week were it not for that technical foul, but the end result is a terrible resume that is 0-3 against the top three quadrants.

UConn is still top-40 in all of the predictive metrics, so we’re not ready to kick the Huskies all the way to the curb just yet. On principle alone, though, they drop to a No. 9 seed, undeserving of getting to choose their jersey color in the first round.

11 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 11. Wisconsin; 12. Illinois; 15. Purdue; 19. Oregon; 23. UCLA; 27. Ohio State; 29. Michigan State; 30. Michigan; 32. Maryland; 39. Nebraska; 45. Penn State

Also Considered: Iowa, Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana

Biggest Change: Quack, Quack, Quack

Heading into a Players Era Festival field that featured five preseason AP Top 25 teams (Houston, Alabama, Creighton, Texas A&M and Rutgers) Oregon—which previously needed a late comeback and overtime to survive at home against Portland before needing another late comeback to beat in-state rival Oregon State—was very much an afterthought.

While going 0-3 against Texas A&M, San Diego State and a TBD third opponent wasn’t necessarily the expectation, that scenario seemed far more likely than a 3-0 record punctuated by a championship game victory over either Houston or Alabama.

Nevertheless, that’s exactly what the Ducks got, beating both the Aggies and Aztecs by a 10-point margin before knocking off Alabama on a Nate Bittle putback dunk in the closing seconds (for a nice NIL payday).

Villanova transfer TJ Bamba was the star of the first two games, but it was Bittle and Keeshawn Barthelemy who set the tone in the championship victory over the Crimson Tide.

As has been the case on the gridiron this fall, Oregon might be the team to beat in its new home in the Big Ten.

We still have the Ducks slotted slightly behind undefeated Wisconsin, one-loss Illinois and one-loss Purdue, but a sweep of former Pac-12 brethren USC and UCLA in the next seven days would be enough to vault them onto at least the fringe of the No. 1 seed conversation.

At any rate, with three Quad 1 wins and a strong Quad 2 victory already on the resume, this is the strongest Oregon has looked since reaching the Final Four as a No. 3 seed in 2017.

11 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn; 3. Tennessee; 5. Kentucky; 9. Alabama; 10. Florida; 18. Texas; 25. Mississippi State; 26. Texas A&M; 41. Ole Miss; 43. Georgia; 44. Oklahoma

Also Considered: Arkansas, Missouri, LSU

Biggest Change: Gators soar, Razorbacks plummet

First things first, let’s point out that 15 of the 16 SEC teams debuted at No. 62 or better in the NET, which isn’t a surprise given how well they’ve played as a whole.

South Carolina was the exception down at No. 135 with a pair of Quad 3 losses, but the other 15 have gone a combined 16-12 against Quad 1. The only loss outside of that tier was Texas A&M’s season-opening road loss to NET No. 84 UCF, which didn’t miss Q1 designation by much.

Eleven teams in the projected field might actually be a bit low for how well they’ve performed to date.

And with Florida absolutely destroying both Wake Forest and Wichita State to win the ESPN Events Invitational, the SEC also now has five teams in the top 10 overall.

The Gators are 8-0 and have won each of those games by at least a 13-point margin. None of the teams they’ve faced is presently in the projected field, but Florida has made impressive statements all the same.

FAU transfer Alijah Martin has been for the Gators what Arkansas hoped FAU transfer Johnell Davis would be for them.

However, Davis was held to three points on three field-goal attempts in the Razorbacks’ recent 13-point loss to Illinois. He also struggled in their early loss to Baylor (eight points on nine shots) and generally has not been the veteran leader and go-to guy that he had been with the Owls.

As a result, Arkansas has yet to even hold a lead against a Quad 1 or Quad 2 opponent and will need to play its way back into the at-large picture.

7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Gonzaga; 17. Memphis; 31. Saint Mary’s; 36. Utah State; 38. Drake; 40. Dayton; 46. San Diego State

Also Considered: Nevada, New Mexico, VCU, Boise State, San Francisco, Loyola-Chicago

Biggest Change: Dayton makes quite the good impression in Maui Invitational

Going 1-2 and settling for seventh place in a multi-team event is usually pretty disastrous news for an at-large hopeful—see: Indiana in Battle 4 Atlantis, Creighton in Players Era Festival and VCU in Charleston Classic, none of whom are currently projected for a bid.

For Dayton, though, finishing seventh in the Maui Invitational was a remarkable feat, showcasing their offensive prowess and potential to be a real problem in March.

In their opener against North Carolina, the Flyers led by as many as 21 points in the second half before the Tar Heels offense sprang to life in a huge way with all sorts of conventional three-pointers and old-fashioned three-point plays as they roared back for a two-point victory.

The next day, Dayton had an entertaining battle with Iowa State that went back and forth and back again, tied at 81 all with less than a minute remaining. That’s when a flagrant foul committed by the Flyers’ Zed Key resulted in a four-point possession for the Cyclones, from which Dayton couldn’t recover. Iowa State won by five.

After those moral victories, the Flyers got an actual win, and in blowout fashion, running away from Connecticut in the final seven minutes for an 18-point W over the twice-reigning champs.

The trip to Hawaii ended up having no impact on their current projected seed, but it was impressive all the same. And before A-10 play gets underway, the Flyers will get Marquette at home (Dec. 14) and Cincinnati on a semi-neutral court (Dec. 20).

Secure a win in either of those tests and they’ll be in serious at-large business.

21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 48. UC Irvine; 49. Liberty; 50. Grand Canyon; 51. McNeese; 52. Furman; 53. Yale; 54. High Point; 55. Arkansas State; 56. Lipscomb; 57. Kent State; 58. South Dakota State; 59. Charleston; 60. Fort Wayne; 61. UMass Lowell; 62. Northern Colorado; 63. Norfolk State; 64. Little Rock; 65. Saint Peter’s; 66. Grambling State; 67. Lafayette; 68. Central Connecticut

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: UC Irvine officially becomes an at-large hopeful

The Big West has not been a multi-bid league since 2005, producing just one KenPom top 50 team in the past two decades—2011-12 Long Beach State ended up at No. 36 on KenPom and earned a No. 12 seed via an automatic bid from the conference tournament.

Don’t sleep on the Anteaters changing that narrative, though.

UC Irvine is one of 17 remaining undefeated teams in men’s college basketball, and it has done so against a kind of respectable schedule.

UCI debuted at No. 24 in the NET rankings on Monday, thanks to six solid wins away from home. No games yet against a NET Top 90 foe, but they made a statement with victories over Kennesaw State (which beat Rutgers), Kent State and Towson in the Western Slam in Alberta, Canada.

Throw in the previous true road wins over Northern Iowa, Weber State and Loyola Marymount and the Anteaters already have a Quad 2 win and five Quad 3 victories—after just one and seven, respectively, in the entire 2023-24 campaign as Big West regular season champs.

They also have nonconference road games remaining against Oregon State, Belmont, Cal Baptist and Duquesne, each of which is both a winnable game and a solid opportunity to prove they deserve to be considered for a possible single-digit seed or at-large bid.

UCI allowed 52.7 points while going 3-0 in the Western Slam and has only allowed one opponent to average better than 0.91 points per possession.