(Mark J. Rebilas)
The Minnesota Vikings passed on using their franchise tag on starting quarterback Sam Darnold, and we might know the real reason why just days before the start of the NFL’s free-agent signing period.
The Vikings are still pursuing Darnold, but their offer is expected to be another one-year deal worth about half of the league’s $40.2 million franchise tag number, per NFL draft analyst Thor Nystrom.
Nystrom retorted a prediction by Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio that Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy would request a trade if the team signs Darnold to a multi-year deal. Here was his full take on the situation:
1) Vikings ain’t trading McCarthy
2) I was told in Indy that Vikes weren’t tagging Darnold, and that Darnold’s market isnt as robust as public thinks
3) Minnesota’ll re-sign Sam to 1-yr $20-25m range deal if a market doesn’t emerge, with the understanding it’ll be a competition
Point No. 3 is the most notable, as Darnold was always expected to hit free agency and gauge his market value. He’ll most likely sign his next contract elsewhere unless the bottom completely falls out of his market, which Nystrom hints at in his report.
McCarthy has stated his desire to have a fair chance to start in 2025, but it would be hard to see that truly happening if the Vikings bring Darnold back on a contract in the Geno Smith range of $25 million for 2025. Darnold won 14 games in 2024 and would be more than doubling his previous salary, so McCarthy would most likely enter training camp as the No. 2.
While probably unlikely, this represents the best-case scenario for the Vikings, who will want to see McCarthy handle more reps and bulk-up his body coming off a lost rookie season. Getting Darnold back for one year at nearly half of his projected market value would shore up their quarterback situation and leave plenty of cap space to be aggressive in free agency.
At face value, the Vikings are making Darnold a low-ball offer here. While he’s far from a slam-dunk signing in free agency, due to his short track record and lack of big-game experience, there should be enough QB-needy teams in the NFL willing to offer him more than $25 million in average annual value.
Baker Mayfield’s current contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at three years, $100 million ($33.3 million AAV) feels like the perfect comp for Darnold’s camp, and it’s hard not to see teams like the Titans, Giants and Raiders putting an offer like that on the table next week.
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